In November, the average natural gas exchange price (TTF index) was 31.94 EUR/MWh, which is approximately 1.2% lower than in October (32.34 EUR/MWh).
The price decline was driven by relatively mild weather conditions, high gas storage levels in Europe, and stable LNG supplies. The lowest daily price in November was around 24.7 EUR/MWh, while the highest reached approximately 44 EUR/MWh during short periods of increased demand.
Key developments in November
Natural gas consumption in Latvia increased in November compared to October, which is seasonally typical with the start of the heating season; however, overall consumption remained lower than in previous years.
In the industrial and district heating sectors, a structural decline in consumption continues due to energy efficiency measures and a partial shift to alternative fuels.
Inčukalns Underground Gas Storage Facility
In November, gas storage levels at the Inčukalns facility remained high, ensuring stable supply security for both Latvia and the region.
High storage levels significantly reduce the risk of price volatility during the winter period and decrease dependence on short-term imports.
Regional market situation
In the Baltic and Finnish region, the natural gas market remained well integrated, with no significant supply disruptions.
The operation of LNG terminals and flexible logistics continue to play an important role in stabilizing prices.
Market and price drivers and outlook
High gas storage levels in Europe continue to exert downward pressure on prices. Weather conditions remain the main short-term driver of price fluctuations. Geopolitical risks remain in the background, but in November they had no direct impact on price spikes.
In November, when setting the price for the entire month of December, a price decrease was observed, with the price reaching 30.89 EUR/MWh. Price increases are limited by:
- sufficient gas storage levels in Inčukalns and across Europe,
- stable LNG supplies,
- relatively moderate weather forecasts.
At the beginning of next year, moderate price dynamics without sharp spikes are expected, and the natural gas market in Latvia is expected to remain stable.
