The average natural gas price on the TTF exchange for November 2025 in Latvia is 31.94 EUR/MWh, which is 1.24% lower than in October. In November 2024, the price was 40.36 EUR/MWh.
Global Natural Gas Market Changes
With the start of the heating season, natural gas in Europe became cheaper in October, indicating market stability. Since the beginning of the month, the TTF spot gas price for the next month has continued to decline, and a slightly lower price than in November is also projected for December. The drop in gas prices was driven by an improved supply of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) in the Atlantic region and weak Asian LNG demand. Global LNG production increased by 9% in October compared to the same period last year.
This year, natural gas market prices are 20% lower than in November of last year. This year's price drop was determined by the significant global increase in LNG production and weak Asian LNG import demand. These trends are more significant than the factors contributing to higher prices, such as a lower filling level of European underground natural gas storage compared to last year (83% compared to 95% last year), the cancellation of Russian gas supplies via Ukraine since the beginning of the year, and higher gas demand in European electricity generation.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global LNG exports increased by 5% (20 billion m³) in the first nine months of this year. During the same period, China's LNG imports fell by 17%. China's LNG appetite this year is dampened by weak industrial indicators, increased domestic gas production, and larger gas supplies via pipelines from Russia. However, the agency forecasts that LNG demand in China and the whole of Asia will increase rapidly next year, as new LNG export terminals begin operation, which should further reduce the price of natural gas.
Key Events in October
Sanctions on Russian Oil Companies
The US imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies "Rosneft" and "Lukoil". Following the announcement of the new sanctions, Chinese state-owned enterprises halted the purchase of seaborne Russian oil. India also plans to significantly reduce oil imports from Russia. Pressure on the Russian energy sector is also being increased by the European Union—the 19th sanctions package was approved in the second half of October, along with a ban on importing Russian LNG to EU terminals starting January 1, 2027.
Global LNG Terminal Development
The "Shell" company confirmed that the second train of the "LNG Canada" LNG export terminal in Canada will start production shortly. This will allow the LNG supply to be further increased during the winter.
This year is an exceptional year in the history of LNG, as an extremely large number of Final Investment Decisions (FID) have been made to build LNG export terminals. The volume of FID decisions is truly significant—new and expanded existing terminals will achieve a nominal LNG production of more than 90 billion m³. US terminal production will reach as much as 80 billion m³. Starting from 2030–2031, these terminals should augment the LNG market.
Increase in LNG Supply
The International Energy Agency, in its latest natural gas market review, asserts that by 2030, the nominal LNG supply on the global market will increase by 300 billion m³, with the largest volumes of LNG being offered by the US and Qatar. In the medium term, natural gas demand will also grow, but at a slower pace than supply. The agency forecasts that due to this dynamic, the natural gas price will fall to 23.5–25 EUR/MWh by the end of this decade, making it a quarter lower than the current price (approximately 32 EUR/MWh). As a result of the price drop, Asian countries, which are sensitive to price fluctuations, will be incentivized to purchase more LNG and thus absorb the potential global LNG surplus in the medium term.
November Price Forecast
The current ICE TTF December futures exchange price is 31.5 EUR/MWh, and a similar price level is expected throughout the upcoming winter. Currently, there are no strong signals in the market for gas price volatility, as LNG imports into Europe remain at historically high levels, and Asia still does not show greater demand for LNG imports. However, the European natural gas market remains fragile, as it is highly dependent on wind generation, changes in air temperature, and the LNG supply in the Atlantic basin.
