The average natural gas price in October 2025 reached 32.34 EUR/MWh, remaining almost unchanged compared to September (32.87 EUR/MWh). Compared to the corresponding period last year, European natural gas prices are 11% lower, with the ICE TTF October index reaching 36.24 EUR/MWh this year.
Market Changes
The European natural gas market remained stable in September, with no significant price fluctuations observed.
The ICE TTF next-month index fluctuated within the range of 32.50 to 33.5 EUR/MWh. Market stability was ensured by several factors:
- Careful and timely filling of underground gas storage facilities,
- Sufficient supply of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG),
- Lower LNG demand in Asia,
- As well as active generation from renewable energy sources (RES).
Currently, the European Union’s underground gas storage facilities are filled by more than 80%, accumulating around 941 TWh of gas. Although this level is slightly lower than last year at this time (94%), experts believe it will not significantly impact prices during the winter season.
Winter price dynamics will primarily be determined by air temperature and wind power plant generation. A cold, dry, and windless winter could rapidly increase gas consumption and accelerate the emptying of storage facilities.
The current LNG supply on the market is stable; however, an increase in supply is possible in the second half of 2026 when several new LNG export terminals in the USA, Qatar, and Mexico, including "Golden Pass" and "Corpus Christi" (Phase 3), begin operations.
Although European gas prices are currently lower than last year, the market remains sensitive and fragile because the global LNG surplus is minimal, and the situation can be affected by unpredictable geopolitical events.
Key Events in September
EU approves 19th sanctions package against Russia
The European Union has approved the 19th sanctions package, which envisages a ban on the import of Russian LNG into EU terminals from January 2027. The sanctions apply only to LNG, not to Russian gas supplied via pipelines. In 2024, the EU imported 21.6 billion m³ of LNG from Russia, which accounted for 16% of the total EU LNG imports.
News of these sanctions was received calmly by the market and did not cause a significant price increase. Analysts explain that the main reason for this is the forecasted LNG surplus after 2027, which will compensate for the shortfall of Russian gas in Europe.
Forecasted increase in oil and gas consumption
According to the latest "BP Energy Outlook" report, the world is expected to see a slowdown in the pace of decarbonization and an increase in fossil fuel consumption.
- Oil consumption could peak in 2030 at 103.4 million barrels per day, but decrease to 83 million barrels per day by 2050.
- Natural gas consumption will continue to grow until 2040, reaching 4,800 billion m³, after which it will gradually decrease.
- Global LNG demand could increase to 900 billion m³ by 2035, mainly due to the construction of new export terminals in the USA, Qatar, Mexico, and elsewhere.
Forecast for October and the Winter season
Currently, ICE TTF November futures are trading at approximately 31 EUR/MWh, and a similar price level is projected for the upcoming winter season.
Significant price fluctuations are not expected, provided that weather conditions remain warm and gas supplies to Europe are stable. Maintenance work on the Norwegian gas infrastructure has also concluded, and supply volumes have returned to their usual level.
