In May, the natural gas market in Latvia became slightly more expensive while also gaining greater strategic importance. Natural gas import contracts and retail products in Latvia typically use European exchange-based benchmark prices, including the TTF front-month contract. As a result, price movements on the Dutch market are also reflected in the Latvian market. In May, the average TTF front-month futures price, which set the price level for the entire month of June, stood at approximately EUR 47.23/MWh.
This price level indicates that Latvia maintained a modest discount compared to the European benchmark during May; however, the market direction continued to be driven by the same factors affecting the wider European gas market. According to Reuters reports published in April and May, European gas storage levels remained unusually low: storage facilities were approximately 31% full at the end of April and around 30% full at the beginning of May, roughly six percentage points below the seasonal average. Both ACER and Equinor noted that refilling storage sites ahead of the next winter season would be more costly and challenging than usual, adding a risk premium to gas prices already during the spring months.
In this context, the Inčukalns Underground Gas Storage facility holds particular importance for Latvia. It is the only operational underground gas storage facility in the Baltic States and a critical component of regional energy security. According to Conexus, the injection season for the 2026/2027 storage cycle commenced on 1 May 2026, with a technical capacity of 24,405,300,000 kWh, or 24.405 TWh. Consequently, the focus of the Latvian gas market naturally shifted in May from heating-season consumption to replenishing gas reserves.
From Latvia’s perspective, the key takeaway from the May gas market is that seasonality alone is no longer sufficient to drive prices lower. When European storage levels remain low, TTF prices stay elevated, and LNG availability remains sensitive to geopolitical developments, the Latvian market enters the summer not in a “cheap gas” environment but rather in a cautious storage-refilling phase. Under such circumstances, the Inčukalns storage facility becomes one of the most important pillars of Latvia’s energy security.
Current forecasts indicate that the average natural gas price in Latvia is likely to increase gradually over the coming months, contrary to earlier expectations. Market focus has shifted away from heating demand towards replenishing storage facilities for the next heating season, while ongoing geopolitical developments continue to complicate this process. The current price forecast stands at approximately EUR 49/MWh.
