Unlike electricity, the natural gas price for July was already set at the end of June at 45.05 EUR/MWh. Consequently, the sharp TTF price surge observed throughout July will be fully reflected in the August natural gas price. Prices on the European TTF market rose significantly in July, starting the month around 45–50 EUR/MWh and climbing above 60 EUR/MWh in the second half.

The price increase in July was driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and maritime risks in the Strait of Hormuz, including concerns over Qatari LNG supplies. Additional upward pressure stemmed from the European heatwave, which boosted electricity demand and gas consumption for power generation. The ongoing need to refill European gas storage facilities ahead of the heating season also contributed to the rise.

European gas storage levels currently stand at 56% (according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data), meaning the target of reaching 80% capacity before the heating season will most likely not be met on time. Natural gas prices are expected to remain elevated and volatile over the coming months. The current TTF futures curve indicates that prices at the start of the heating season will be close to current levels. While this remains below the summer peaks seen in late July, it is still significantly above the level recorded at the end of June. The average natural gas exchange price for August reached 53.29 EUR/MWh.