In June 2025, the average natural gas price reached 35.19 EUR/MWh, which is 1.18% lower than in May.
Changes on the natural gas exchange
In June, an increase in natural gas prices was observed. This rise was mainly driven by a military conflict between Iran and Israel – during the 12 days of active hostilities, the price of natural gas surged to 42 EUR/MWh. After the conflict subsided and a ceasefire was established, prices returned to previous levels.
Beneath the Persian Gulf lies the world’s largest natural gas field, producing more than 350 billion m³ of gas annually. Armed conflict in this region significantly impacts global gas prices. This is not the first time that political instability in the Middle East has caused volatility in energy markets. Price fluctuations and uncertainty also negatively affect Europe, one of the world’s largest natural gas importers.
Currently, the European natural gas market remains relatively stable. Gas storage facilities are being filled according to the seasonal schedule – in June, EU member states increased storage levels by 9%, which aligns with normal seasonal trends. In total, EU gas storage is filled to 57%, or 648 TWh. In Latvia, storage levels currently stand at 44%, or 10.8 TWh.
Forecasts for July and the coming months
In the first week of July, the exchange price for natural gas for the entire month of August was set at around 34 EUR/MWh, though the month has just begun. The price increase in May was influenced by U.S. tariff policy, while in June it was driven by the Middle East conflict. Given the instability of the situation, it is difficult to predict a calm market for the remainder of the summer.
Tensions also remain regarding liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries, as 85% of LNG shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz from the Persian Gulf countries to Asia. Most of this gas is delivered to China, but approximately 15% is also sent to Europe. Therefore, any developments in this region have a global impact on gas prices.
The European Commission has eased the requirements regarding gas storage filling targets, allowing member states greater flexibility in reaching goals that previously required 90% capacity. This decision promotes price stability during the summer months, as the market is no longer forced to meet strict storage levels regardless of demand or pricing. At the same time, the European Commission has announced a plan to completely ban Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, applying the ban to both new and existing contracts.
