In July, the TTF natural gas exchange, setting prices for the entire month of August, saw a decline. The main reason was the easing of tension in energy markets following the end of a 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel. Trading was calm, with prices fluctuating between €33 and €36/MWh. Compared to August last year, the price is €1.35/MWh higher.

Natural Gas Storage in Europe

• EU gas storage is currently 69% full, which is 12% higher than at the beginning of July.
• In Latvia, storage levels reached 49%, 5% higher than at the start of the month.

European Union Policy

The European Union and the United States have reached an agreement on a $750 billion energy supply deal over the next three years to reduce dependence on unreliable suppliers. However, analysts express doubts about whether:

• It will be possible to purchase energy worth $250 billion annually, as in 2024 the amount was only around $70 billion.
• This target could not be achieved without tripling LNG imports from the US and phasing out other suppliers.

Natural Gas Market Forecast for the Coming Months

No significant market changes are expected in August. The risk of LNG supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased, so prices are likely to remain stable. In August, the average natural gas price is expected to reach €33.84/MWh, 8% lower than in July. For September, the TTF exchange forecast price is around €34/MWh. ICIS experts predict that from 2026 to 2027, a global LNG supply surplus could lead to a price drop in Europe.