In July, the average electricity price reached €46.12/MWh, which is 7% higher than in June. The lowest price was recorded on July 11 at €9.23/MWh, while the highest was on July 9 at €85.92/MWh.
Key Factors Affecting Prices in Latvia
Baltic Connection with Finland Resumes
After prolonged maintenance, the Estonia–Finland interconnection was restored in July, significantly increasing electricity imports to the Baltic states. Compared to June:
- Total imports increased by 67.3%.
- Supplies from Finland rose by 131.7%, reaching last year’s year-end level.
- Imports from Sweden increased by 9.1%.
- Imports from Poland decreased by 68.4%, falling to the lowest level since April 2022.
The Poland–Lithuania interconnection toward Lithuania was utilized at only 6%, while in the opposite direction it reached 90%, allowing cheaper electricity from the Baltic states to be exported to Poland.
Negative Prices – Less Frequent Phenomenon
In July, negative electricity prices in the Baltics were less frequent than in June:
- In Latvia and Lithuania, the number of negative hours decreased by 95%, to three hours per month in each country.
- In Estonia, they decreased by 71%, to 20 negative hours.
New Balancing Tariffs
From July 1, 2025, the System Operator (AST) started applying the new balancing capacity maintenance tariff, which is now reflected in electricity bills.
Forecast for August
According to futures contract data, the average price in August could increase by around 11%, reaching approximately €50-60/MWh.
Reasons for Price Increase:
- Reduced solar and wind generation compared to previous summer months.
- Higher demand for cooling due to hotter and drier weather.
- Increased futures contract prices.
